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Why Did The Polls Underestimate The Trump Vote (Again)? - Cheddar Explains

  • The Electoral College, explained


    Why some Americans’ votes count more than others.

    Watch more of our election coverage:

    In the 2000 US presidential election, the Democratic candidate got half a million more votes than the Republican. The Democrat lost. Sixteen years later the same thing happened again. In the US, if you run for president, it does not actually matter how many people in the country vote for you. What matters instead is an arcane system for selecting America’s head of state called the Electoral College.

    The Electoral College is the reason the US has something called “swing states,” and it’s the reason those places get to decide the future of the country. It’s the reason presidential candidates almost never campaign in the country’s biggest cities. And more recently, it’s also the reason that Republican candidates have been able to eke out victories in the presidential election without actually getting the most votes.

    The Electoral College makes some Americans’ votes more powerful than others. In fact, that’s part of the reason we have it to begin with; in the country’s early years, the Electoral College helped give the votes of Southern Whites more weight than the votes of Northerners. The idea at its core, that certain votes simply matter more than others, is baked into the American tradition. In the 2020 election, it may decide the winner.

    Further reading:
    The historian Alexander Keyssar’s book “Why Do We Still Have the Electoral College?” takes you through the history and function of the Electoral College:

    For the bite-sized version of that history, Keyssar also wrote this piece in the New York Times:

    The Times also had a great interactive feature on where the 2020 candidates actually spent money:

    Pew has a breakdown of how democracies around the world elect their head of state, which really shows what an oddball the US is:

    More on why today’s Electoral College gives Republican presidential candidates a structural advantage: is a news website that helps you cut through the noise and understand what's really driving the events in the headlines. Check out

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  • 2020 Election Results And Analysis | TODAY


    NBC News brings you full coverage of the 2020 election to track the state of the race between President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Joe Biden. Track the election results here:

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    Live: 2020 Election Results, Poll Closings, Analysis | TODAY

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  • US Election: Joe Biden on brink of victory - BBC News


    Joe Biden is on the verge of becoming the next president of the United States.

    The counting continues in a handful of remaining battleground states. But Joe Biden has now overtaken Donald Trump in key states including Pennsylvania, where 98% of the votes have been counted.

    Victory in Pennsylvania alone, with its 20 electoral college votes, would be enough to deliver Joe Biden the White House.

    Sophie Raworth presents BBC News at Ten reporting by North America editor Jon Sopel and Nick Bryant with the Biden campaign in Delaware.

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  • The Road Design Tricks That Make You Drive Slower - Cheddar Explains


    America has a speeding problem. Speeding results in more traffic fatalities than any other cause. Traditional methods of policing are expensive and don’t always help. That’s why civil engineers are turning to design to try and eliminate speeding by influencing our subconscious.

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  • Why Self-Storage Is Suddenly Everywhere - Cheddar Explains


    Have you ever noticed just how many self-storage places there are and how they seemingly popped up out of nowhere? Well it's not just you, there are more self-storage facilities in the United States than there are McDonalds. The now $38 billion industry is a product of both an uncanny business model and changes in how we live.

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  • How Dollar Stores Conquered America - Cheddar Explains


    Dollar stores have conquered the United States, in an era where a “retail apocalypse” is slowly decimating brick and mortar retail shopping. The spread of these dollar stores is also deeply tied to issues of income inequality in the U.S. It’s argued that not only do these institutions benefit from poverty, but also that they perpetuate it. It has even led to some communities to limit the spread of dollar stores in their towns. So how did the dollar store conquer the U.S. - and what is their real impact?


    Annals of the American Association of Geographers

    The Institute for Local Self-Reliance

    Dollar General

    The Washington Post

    Visual Capitalist

    ProPublica / The New Yorker

    CNN Business

    Mental Floss


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  • The Unexpected Death Of The Ad Jingle - Cheddar Explains


    Jingles dominated the American advertising sector for a large portion of the mid to late 1900s. But now they’ve mostly become a relic of a bygone era. So what killed the jingle? Well, the demise is a result of both a shift in the advertising industry and a hit song by Michael Jackson.

    Further reading:


    The Atlantic



    The Economist

    Special thanks to DSV Media and Brooklyn Music Experience

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  • The Real Reason Londons Skyscrapers Are Oddly Shaped - Cheddar Explains


    London's skyline is spotted with several distinctly shaped skyscrapers. Londoners have awarded these unique building with some quirky nicknames including the Gherkin, the Shard, and the Cheesegrater. But these now iconic buildings weren't designed this way for purely aesthetic purposes.

    Further reading:


    Historic England



    Office for National Statistics


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  • Why The Airship Was A Design Disaster - Cheddar Explains


    Airships were once believed to be the future of human flight. Even with competition from airplanes, airships remained the preferred form of air travel up until the early 1940s. So why did they fall out of favor so quickly and which flaws ultimately made them a design disaster?

    Further Reading:

    Empires of the Sky by Alexander Rose


    Zeppelin History

    National Balloon Museum

    Foreign Policy


    Popular Mechanics

    Air and Space

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  • Why Did The Polls Underestimate The Trump Vote ? - Cheddar Explains


    Very little was clear on Election Night 2020 except that, once again, the polls had underestimated support for Donald Trump. So what is it that makes Trump's support so hard for pollsters to count?

    Further reading:

    USA Today

    Pew Research

    Washington Post
    Inside Elections

    Real Clear Politics


    NPR / WBUR


    New York Times

    The Economist

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  • US election: Why were the polls wrong? - BBC Newsnight


    The polls suggested a landslide for Democratic candidate Joe Biden - but President Donald Trump has outperformed pollsters’ predictions. Why were the polls wrong again in the US election? Please subscribe here:

    A historic vote in terms of turnout, President Donald Trump has done better in the 2020 US election than 2016 - he’s polled more votes and increased his vote share.

    Democratic nominee Joe Biden has topped 70 million votes, the largest of any candidate in electoral US history.

    Who has Trump newly appealed to this time round? And who has given their support to Joe Biden?

    Newsnight’s Diplomatic Editor Mark Urban looks at the breakdown of voters in the US presidential election.

    Just as pollsters got it wrong about Hillary Clinton in 2016, why were the polls wrong this time round again?

    Emily Maitlis is joined by Republican pollster Frank Lunz and editor at large for the Daily Beast Goldie Taylor.

    #Newsnight #BBC #BBCNews

  • How the polls got it wrong — again


    The U.S. polls have underestimated the support for Donald Trump for the second election in a row, which could be a result of few people responding to polls or not wanting to give their support out loud.

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  • Is the election over? Political experts explain what happens next.


    Candidate Joe Biden surpassed the 270 Electoral College vote and is now President-elect.

  • GOP pollster Frank Luntz on how the 2020 polls were completely wrong


    Frank Luntz, pollster and political strategist, joins Squawk Box to discuss the state of the 2020 presidential race as votes are still being counted the morning after polls close. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:

    Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz told CNBC on Wednesday that President Donald Trump needs to win Pennsylvania in order to have a chance at defeating Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

    Luntz’s comments on “Squawk Box” come as the outcome of Tuesday’s election still hangs in the balance, with neither candidate having earned the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the presidential race, according to NBC News. Biden currently has 224 electoral votes compared with Trump’s 213, NBC News reports.

    “Donald Trump must win Pennsylvania if he’s to get to 270,” Luntz said. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes. While Trump currently holds a lead in the Keystone State, NBC News considers the race too early to call as a significant number of mail-in votes remain uncounted. Luntz said he believes those mail-in votes will favor Biden heavily.

    “I believe when all the votes are counted, this is going to be dead even, which is why it’s going to take at least the next six hours and as much as another 24 hours before we know who is the winner,” Luntz added. “It’s going to be so close in Pennsylvania that it may require a state recount.”

    Underlying Luntz’s forecast is his assumption that Trump wins Georgia and its 16 electoral votes, as well as North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes. The other side of Luntz’s assumptions are that Biden wins Arizona’s 11 electoral votes and Nevada’s 6 electoral votes. NBC News has not made any projections in those races.

    That then leaves a trio of key bricks in the so-called “blue wall” that Trump won in upset fashion in 2016: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    “The three critical states, and Donald Trump would have to win two of them, at this point, are Pennsylvania, where he has a clear lead, and Michigan and Wisconsin, where it will be much more difficult for him,” Luntz said.

    Luntz believes Biden is in more favorable positions in Wisconsin and Michigan, which have 10 and 16 electoral votes, respectively. NBC News has not made a projection in either Michigan or Wisconsin.

    “We could have a situation I think the most likely outcome — is that whoever wins, wins with less than 280 electoral votes, which means they’re only one state away on either side,” Luntz added.

    Earlier Wednesday morning, Trump falsely claimed he had won the presidential election, despite the fact millions of legally cast ballots had yet to be counted at the time of his remarks. Speaking to a room of supporters in the White House, Trump also threatened legal action, saying that “we want all voting to stop.” All polls in U.S. states had, in fact, been closed at the time.

    The Biden campaign pushed back vigorously on Trump’s remarks, with campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon calling them “outrageous, unprecedented, and incorrect.”

    “If the president makes good on his threat to go to court to try to prevent the proper tabulation of votes, we have legal teams standing by ready to deploy to resist that effort. And they will prevail,” she added in a written statement.

    Before Trump spoke, Biden urged patience, saying, “it’s not over until every vote is counted.”

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  • Why Early Polls About the Election Were Wrong


    How did the polls get it so wrong, again? Most gave Joe Biden a solid, even commanding lead heading into Election Day. As The New York Times reported, no matter the polling method, Biden was ahead. The Susquehanna poll was one of the few to give President Trump an edge. CEO Jim Lee said some Trump voters are shy about admitting their support for the president. There were warning signs polls were understating the president’s popularity, including huge rallies he held in the middle of a pandemic.

  • Talk Nerdy to Me: The 2016 Presidential Polls Werent Actually Bad


    Most people accept that the 2016 polling was way off, greatly underestimating Donald Trump and overestimating Hillary Clinton; but is that actually true? Keith Carson explores the numbers in Part 1 of a 3 part special Talk Nerdy to Me series.

  • US Presidential Elections: Joe Biden Leads In Key States, Confident Of Victory


    The United States awaits the outcome of it presidential polls as counting is still underway. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden says that he his confident of the victory.

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  • What could the Trump campaigns lawsuit mean for the election?


    What could the Trump campaign's lawsuit mean for the election?

  • Election 2020: The Division


    Trump or Biden? What was behind the thinking of voters in this election.

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  • US Elections 2020 | An update from New York with Sherwin Bryse-Pease


    Democratic candidate Joe Biden has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a key state in the US presidential race. Biden is leading by nearly ten thousand votes, with 98% counted. If he takes the state, he will win the election. Philadelphia's election commissioner says the final count there could take several days. Correspondent Sherwin Bryse-Pease joins us for a live report from New York.

    For more news, visit and also #SABCNews #Coronavirus #COVID19News on Social Media.

  • Why The Polls Keep Getting It Wrong - Cheddar Explains


    Opinion polls have been used across many industries from marketing to politics, but recently they are becoming more and more unreliable. The sample size keeps decreasing giving incorrect results, and here's why...

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  • Biden v. Trump: Why Some polls failed and others didnt...


    Many polls in 2020 were wrong once again. But some pollsters nailed it. Here's a closer look at how and why some polls are more accurate than others.

  • Lazy pollsters using outdated methods got it wrong in Florida again, political experts say


    The prediction polls for Florida voters didn't show up for former Vice President Joe Biden. Numerous polls days out from the election got it wrong.

  • Why This Bridge Is Suddenly Everywhere - Cheddar Explains


    All across America old bridges are being replaced. In the place of deteriorating truss and suspension bridges architects are choosing the aesthetically pleasing cable-stay bridges. But this modern design actually dates back to the 16th-century. Cheddar explains why cable-stay bridges took so long to catch on and why they are the new go-to bridge for engineers.

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  • Why Arcades Are Still Thriving In Japan - Cheddar Explains


    American arcades are largely dead, killed by negative public sentiment and advancements in personal gaming. But arcades in Japan were able to survive and today are thriving. Even amidst a global pandemic. Cheddar Explains how Japanese arcades evolved to stay relevant.

    Further reading:

    The Verge

    Travel Outlandish

    Japan Times



    Old Classic Retro Gaming

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  • Why Theres Almost No Google Street View In Germany - Cheddar Explains


    Have you ever used Google Street View to look around Europe and wondered why Germany is almost entirely blank? For years Google has tried to get Street View into the country, yet has faced heavy public backlash every time. Cheddar explains why Germany is so anit-Street View, and why Google won't give up the fight.

    Further reading:

    Big Think

    NY Times


    Washington Post


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  • The Real Reason Pedestrian Deaths Are Rising - Cheddar Explains


    6,283 pedestrians were killed by motor vehicles in the United States in 2018 - the highest number of fatalities since 1990. But what's causing this spike in pedestrian deaths, when driver deaths continue to decline? Cheddar explains the real reason why the numbers keep climbing.




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  • US election polls did a pretty good job


    People will find the polls throughout the US election campaign actually did a pretty good job at picking the states which flipped for President-elect Joe Biden, according to Bondi Partners' Mark Watson.

    Most national polls before the election gave Mr Biden a substantial lead against President Trump, as well as massive leads in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and a smaller lead - but still outside the margin of error - in Pennsylvania.

    On election night, many commentators and politicians alike derided the performance of the polls when it looked like the election would be much closer with the President potentially holding onto Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    President-elect Biden has since had the election called for him along with those crucial swing states taking him to a predicted 290-plus Electoral College tally as well as winning the popular vote by just under five million votes.

    Mr Watson told Sky News Joe Biden will finish up with quite a comfortable victory in the electoral college.

    When some of the sound and fury dies down, and people look more calmly at what the polls predicted, I think we'll find they actually did a pretty good job, he said.

    Joe Biden will wind up with what he will consider to be a very solid win.

    The polls - with some cold light of day - we may go 'actually didn't do such a bad job.

  • Why the Movie Trailer Voice Disappeared - Cheddar Explains


    Have you ever wondered where the dramatic IN A WORLD... movie trailer narration went? It was a staple of movie trailers in the 80s and 90s, but nowadays it's nowhere to be found. Cheddar explains where the movie trailer narration came from - and why it disappeared.

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  • Why the Polls Were Wrong


    upLynk Clip

  • Watch what happened in Texas 2020 elections


    The Republican Party dominated races up and down the ballot Tuesday, despite Democrats' high hopes of performing well in races down ballot. Watch our experts shed light on what happened.
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  • Why The Covid-19 Vaccines Must Be Kept So Cold - Cheddar Explains


    Pfizer and Moderna each recently introduced the first COVID-19 vaccines - and both are over 90% effective. An unprecedented achievement. But it isn’t all roses. These vaccines need to be stored in extreme cold. And that's a huge logistical challenge. So what is it about these vaccines that require such brutal cold?

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  • US Elections 2020 | Biden leads in key battleground state of Pennsylvania: Sherwin Bryce-Pease


    US Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden is leading in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania. Earlier, Biden took a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in the traditionally Republican state of Georgia, edging closer to winning the White House. It's been a nail-biting contest as a handful of undecided states continue to count votes.

    For more news, visit and also #SABCNews #Coronavirus #COVID19News on Social Media.

  • The polls were wrong, AGAIN | Post Election Day Yang Speaks


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  • How Hollywood Got From New Jersey To Los Angeles - Cheddar Explains


    The sunny skies, warm weather, and diverse landscapes of Los Angeles allow for filming whatever, and whenever. But did you know the movie capital of the world was actually in Fort Lee, NJ? And if it wasn't for Thomas Edison, it might still be there today.

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  • Biden Overcomes Trump in Pennsylvania and Georgia | 2020 Election Update


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  • लागा US Election की चुनरी में लगे दाग...| Joe Biden | Donald trump


    लागा US Election की चुनरी में लगे दाग...| #JoeBiden | #Donaldtrump

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  • Several states continue to count ballots as we head into day 2 of the 2020 Election


    Ballot counting continues in several key battleground states across the United States and several who have yet to declare a winner. Holding up the process, in part, is the large number of absentee mail-in ballots. And while mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3rd, each state has different rules when it comes to receiving and counting ballots. Andrew Walworth, chief content officer and host of Real Clear Politics Takeaway Podcast, joins us with analysis.

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  • Biden reveals what he thinks most Trump and Biden voter have in common


    The vast majority of the 150 million Americans who voted -- they want to get the vitriol out of our politics.

    Moments ago in remarks in Wilmington, Delaware, Joe Biden sounded a message of unity and tolerance between voters of both him and President Trump.




  • Why President Trump is Bearish on NATO


    For decades, the United States has been a staunch and steadfast supporter of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an organization it helped found to counter the USSR's influence and military power. President Trump has a far less positive view of the alliance than previous presidents, we take a look at why.

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  • Why Is America So Conservative Compared To European Countries?


    My last video from the United States of America, to explain why the country is so widely called conservative

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  • Top White House official: Trump intends TO FIGHT


    Larry Kudlow tells reporters President Trump intends to fight to keep the White House.

  • Inside Political Conventions – How They’re Changing, Why They Matter | Election 2020


    The Democrats planned a raucous bash in Milwaukee for July. The Republicans dreamed of a packed house in North Carolina for August. Their plans may have changed, but you can still spend a summer night with The Times. Gather your favorite delegates and join us as we talk politics, share a laugh (yes, it’s still possible) and dive deep into the world of conventions — how they’re changing, why they matter and what it feels like to give a speech that can make or break your political career.

    Hosted by Rachel Dry, New York Times deputy politics editor. Guests include reporters Katie Glueck, Annie Karni, Lisa Lerer and Jenny Medina.

  • Joe Biden Says He Is ‘Going To Win’ US Election As Lead Expands || US Election 2020 || AP24x7


    Joe Biden Says He Is ‘Going To Win’ US Election As Lead Expands || US Election 2020 || AP24x7
    #AP24x7 #AP24x7Live #AP24x7News

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  • 2016 Election Results and the Implications for Governing


    University of Minnesota Headliners Rebroadcast: 2016 Election Results and the Implications for Governing

    Say what you will about this year's US Presidential Election, but 2016 is clearly a departure from elections of yore. (Cue Founding Fathers’ and Mothers’ groans.) And as hard as we tried, we simply couldn’t come up with a satisfying description for this special edition of Headliners. I mean really, what could we say that 1) hasn't already been said—and then some—and 2) wouldn't be reversed, retracted, and/or repackaged in the ensuing 24-hour-news cycle?

    We. Can't. Keep. Up.

    Best thing to do, both before and after our votes have been counted, is to gather our collective senses and selves and hash it all out with the person best qualified to help us come to grips with what has happened and what, pray tell, will come next.

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    Follow Headliners on Twitter: @LearningLife, #umnheadliners

  • The long road to capitalism: here’s why China has arrived


    As business partnerships with China are on the up, it’s becoming imperative to crack the mystery of the “China code”. On the one hand and given how the country serves as a model for prosperity, China seems to be capitalist. On the other, it defies so many of the rules: no free elections and no free market economy, for example.

    In this webinar, Nico Luchsinger, Co-Executive Director of the Asia Society Switzerland moderated a session between Arturo Bris, IMD Professor of Finance and Head of the IMD World Competitiveness Center, and Mark Greeven, IMD Professor of Innovation and Strategy with a strong interest in China.

    Drawing from the trio’s varied experience and opposing views on the topic, the audience was able to get under the surface of China’s political and economic setup. This is a crucial part of the exploration of the landscape, especially for companies working in China or working with Chinese companies that are branching out on the international stage.

    Full article:
    #IMDImpact #Webinar #MarkGreeven #ArturoBris

  • US Election: Biden takes lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia, is expected to win | DW News


    Democrat Joe Biden has overtaken Trump's lead in the two battleground states Pennsylvania and Georgia, inching him closer to a possible victory. Angry protests have been reported at vote counting centers elsewhere.

    With Joe Biden urging patience as the last votes are counted, President Trump has again gone on the attack. In his first appearance since election night, Trump made a series of unsubstantiated claims that he's being robbed of a second term. State election officials insist there's no evidence of any wrongdoing.


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    #USelection #VoteCount #Election2020

  • U.S. Presidential Elections: Is the US Deeply Divided?


    اس بار امریکہ کے صدارتی انتخابات میں سخت مقابلہ دیکھا گیا جس پر بیشتر امریکی بھی حیران ہیں۔ ان کے خیال میں یہ صورتِ حال ملک میں موجود گہری تقسیم کا عکاس ہے۔ لیکن اس تقسیم کی وجہ کیا ہے اور ایک ہی ملک میں رہنے والوں کی حقیقت ایک دوسرے سے کتنی مختلف ہے؟ دیکھیے اس رپورٹ میں۔



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